Monday, February 5, 2018

BITCOIN BUBBLE

TOP OF THE NEWS:


- Why is Bitcoin’s price down to two-month lows? (TechCrunch) "This week has seen coins across the board in the red — a sign that investors are jumping ship to fiat currencies this time instead of swapping into altcoins as we’ve seen in the recent past. Is this the bitter end for Bitcoin? For cryptos? Well, no, probably not. So what’s causing the slide to begin with? As usual, no one thing can be blamed for Bitcoin’s current downturn, but recent skittishness around a subpoena for Bitfinex and concerns around Tether — a kind of cryptocurrency counterpart to USD that matches the dollar one to one — probably factor in. Recent news that Facebook would ban ads for ICOs probably didn’t help either. And it seems like every day a new Ponzi scheme gets busted, throwing yet more doubt on the credibility of plenty of less than legit ICOs."

- Why Tether's Collapse Would Be Bad for Cryptocurrencies (Wired) "Unlike bitcoin and its many siblings, tether is what is called a stablecoin, an entity designed to not fluctuate in value. With most cryptocurrencies prone to wild swings, tether offers people who dabble in the market the option of buying a currency that its backers say is pegged to the US dollar. But in recent weeks a chorus of skeptics has called into question nearly everything about tether. The root of the controversy is whether the company behind it, also called Tether, is telling the truth when it claims that every unit in circulation is matched by a US dollar it holds in reserve. Critics on Twitter, Reddit, in blog posts, and at a recent bitcoin conference have been demanding that the company prove its reserves through external audits. Not only has Tether failed to do so, last week it confirmed rumors that it had severed ties with Friedman LLP, the accounting firm on tap to perform those audits. If traders lose faith in tether, they could end up triggering the crypto version of a bank run. Tether helps stabilize cryptocurrency exchanges in various ways, so its collapse could also cause some exchanges to topple, wiping out billions of dollars of investments overnight and potentially undoing much of the public’s growing interest in new technologies like bitcoin."

- Cryptocurrency Traders Lose $115 Billion in 24 Hours as Bitcoin Bloodbath Continues (Fortune) "To recap the possible reasons for the current collapse: India has become the latest country to seriously talk about a regulatory crackdown on bitcoin; There are fears that bitcoin’s lofty valuation may have been artificially propped up; Facebook has banned ads that promote cryptocurrencies and initial coin offerings.Whatever the cause, it seems a Bitcoin panic is in full swing. The question now is how low it will go before the selloff stops."

- Bitcoin Is the ‘Biggest Bubble in Human History,’ Economist Says (Fortune) "There are more than 1,300 cryptocurrencies or initial coin offerings, and 'most of them are even worse' than the largest digital token. These constitute a 'a bubble to the power of two or three'... In another salvo aimed at crypto bulls, Bitcoin is an 'environmental disaster'...citing its soaring energy costs."

- ‘Bitcoin is my potential pension’: What’s driving people in Kentucky to join the craze (WaPo) "As bitcoin and its many competitors are hitting the mainstream, a once-lucrative market is turning instead into perhaps the world’s most volatile — what some economists call a speculative bubble in line with the dot-com craze of the late 1990s. Investors are bidding up prices of bitcoin and its many smaller competitors and selling in a panic. Values of cryptocurrencies soar and plunge in a matter of hours, sometimes by more than 30 percent."

- Major Banks Ban Buying Bitcoin With Your Credit Card (Fortune) " The moves are above all in the banks’ self-interest. As Fortune previously reported, the mania surrounding cryptocurrency late last year appears to have motivated many retail investors to use credit cards as leveraging tools, buying more cryptocurrency than they could afford. With Bitcoin down roughly 50% from December highs, many of those investors are likely underwater right now, and may not be able to pay off their initial Bitcoin purchases soon, if ever."

- Bitcoin Newbies Are Getting Crushed (Fortune) " Meanwhile, many investors who got in earlier aren’t budging. Bitcoin was worth about $1,000 at the beginning of last year and about $450 at the start of 2016, so those who bought then are shrugging off these losses — they’re still up more than 800 percent."

BUSINESS/INVESTING:

- Risk Roars Back (Barron's) "Party like it’s 1987? Then, the stock selloff resulted largely from a sharp rise in bond yields as the Federal Reserve was raising short-term interest rates, which in turn put record equity prices in jeopardy. On the fiscal front, the economy was absorbing a new tax-reform package with lower marginal tax rates. Internationally, the dollar was in broad retreat amid growing tensions over the U.S. trade balance. Finally, that year also saw the White House engulfed in controversy, then over the Iran-Contra scandal. ...there are things that are different this time, but not necessarily for the better. Stocks and bonds have become correlated, which may not seem important. Bonds have generally zigged when stocks zagged, which has made fixed income a valuable hedge for equity portfolios. That negative correlation appears to be ending.... And the increased synchronization of bonds and stocks could spur more selling by portfolios that utilize the negative correlation between the asset classes, such as balanced mutual funds or so-called risk-parity strategies (which leverage up less-risky assets, such as bonds, to achieve the returns of riskier assets, such as stocks). But if both asset classes swing together, those portfolios’ volatility rises."

- The good economic news is actually bad. Here’s why (WaPo) "As of 2013, 45 percent of working-age households had no retirement savings. Social Security (average annual payment, $15,500), which provides 33 percent of seniors’ annual income, and 90 percent for the bottom third of retirees, but only about 35 percent of a typical household’s pre-retirement income... A 2015 Federal Reserve study revealed that half of those surveyed said they could not gather $400 to cope with an emergency; one-third said they could not sell assets, tap retirement savings or turn to family and friends to pay three months of expenses. By 2017, median household savings ($14,500) for those near retirement age had declined 32 percent in a decade, and for the first time, older Americans had more credit card debt than younger Americans. Americans consider deferral of gratification unnatural..."

- Strategies: The Stock Market Works by Day, but It Loves the Night (NYT) "Simply put, the gap may be defined as the difference between stock returns during the hours the market is open, and the returns after regular daytime trading ends. How the gap is calculated may not be intuitively obvious, though. Because stock prices at the market open tend to be higher than the price at the previous day’s close, you don’t actually have to stay up all night and trade on an electronic network to rack up overnight gains. Simply holding shares while you sleep will do it."

- Businesses Look at Washington and Say, ‘Never Mind, We’ll Do It’ (NYT) "Can private businesses solve public policy problems better than the government? There has never been a clear answer. Their efforts stem from a feeling that, with partisan bickering and constant campaigning consuming Washington, the onus is on businesses to fill the void left by an ineffective government.

- Amazon Asked for Patience. Remarkably, Wall Street Complied. (NYT) " In a business environment that demands, and rewards, quarterly profits and short-term strategic thinking, Amazon showed extraordinary resolve in focusing on long-term goals, somehow convincing investors to go along. ... Amazon has inured itself to pressure from Wall Street by ignoring it. Mr. Bezos has constantly reminded the market of his philosophy. 'We will continue to make investment decisions in light of long-term market leadership considerations rather than short-term profitability considerations or short-term Wall Street reactions"... Those long-term investments, which Amazon didn’t detail at the time, eventually gave rise to some of the company’s most profitable businesses, like its cloud computing unit, Amazon Web Services. Ultimately, much of the investor confidence in Amazon reflects a belief in its future opportunity..."

MORE SMOKE:


- Republican lawmakers distance themselves from Trump on memo (WaPo) "Calling on Trump not to interfere in Mueller’s investigation, four Republican members of the House Intelligence Committee dismissed on Sunday the idea that the memo’s criticism of how the FBI handled certain surveillance applications undermines the special counsel’s work. Reps. Trey Gowdy (S.C.), Chris Stewart (Utah), Will Hurd (Tex.) and Brad Wenstrup (Ohio) represented the committee on the morning political talk shows. The four Republicans walked a careful line on the GOP document, which alleges that the Justice Department abused its powers by obtaining a warrant for surveillance of former Trump campaign adviser Carter Page using information from a source who was biased against Trump. Their comments echoed those of Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.), who supported the memo’s release but insists that its findings do not impugn Mueller or Rosenstein."

- There's No Way Mueller Will Indict Trump (Atlantic) "He won’t do it for the good and sufficient reason that the Department of Justice has a long-standing legal opinion that sitting presidents may not be indicted. First issued in 1973 during the Nixon era, the policy was reaffirmed in 2000, during the Clinton era. These rules bind all Department of Justice employees and Mueller, in the end, is a Department of Justice employee. What can Mueller do if he finds evidence of criminality involving the president? He can and will (as authorized by Department of Justice regulations) file a report on his findings with the attorney general (or, since Attorney General Sessions is, in this case, recused, with the deputy attorney general, Rod Rosenstein). So, every time you read about the threat to fire Mueller, remember this—the critical actor in most future scenarios is not Mueller, but Rosenstein."

- You Haven't Seen the Last of Andrew McCabe (Ozy) "Though his departure has been painted as a victory for the president, McCabe could represent a time bomb for Trump as their interactions leak to the press and become fodder for Special Counsel Robert Mueller."

NEWS:

Secret Alliance: Israel Carries Out Airstrikes in Egypt, With Cairo’s O.K. (NYT) "The remarkable cooperation marks a new stage in the evolution of their singularly fraught relationship. Once enemies in three wars, then antagonists in an uneasy peace, Egypt and Israel are now secret allies in a covert war against a common foe. Their collaboration in the North Sinai is the most dramatic evidence yet of a quiet reconfiguration of the politics of the region. Shared enemies like ISIS, Iran and political Islam have quietly brought the leaders of several Arab states into growing alignment with Israel — even as their officials and news media continue to vilify the Jewish state in public."

- How Congress Can Protect the Mueller Investigation from Trump (National Review) "There are, for now, two main restraints being considered to limit Trump from firing Mueller, at least without a very good reason. On the one hand, two bipartisan bills introduced in the Senate in August would effectively reinstate parts of the old independent-counsel statute’s procedures to bar Mueller from being fired without a showing of good cause to the satisfaction of a court. My own long-term solution to these sorts of problems, as I’ve explained before, is to permanently house these kinds of investigations in a separate, cabinet-level inspector-general department." and How Congress Can Protect Mueller (NYT) " In 1978, Congress believed that an independent counsel was necessary and proper for preventing the president from breaking Congress’s laws. Now that we have a president who poses the greatest threat to constitutional norms since Nixon, Congress needs to rediscover its constitutional responsibilities. It should pass a bill that grants the special counsel for-cause protection against firing by the president, and it should do so before it’s too late."

- Once the party of law and order, Republicans are now challenging it (WaPo) "The FBI, the Justice Department and other agencies are now under concerted assault by party leaders and activists, facing allegations of corruption and conspiracy that have quickly moved from the fringes of the right into the mainstream of the GOP. Republicans in Congress insist their efforts are meant to fulfill their duty to provide oversight of the executive branch and root out suspected bias. But critics say their campaign — to 'cleanse' the FBI, in the words of House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.) — has been clearly orchestrated to safeguard the president and undercut the Russia probe, which includes an examination of whether Trump or his associates have sought to obstruct justice."

- How conservatives learned to hate the FBI (Politico) "Whatever the merits of those claims – and there is ample reason to doubt them -- the Republican assault on the FBI amounts to an obvious and concerted effort to deflect attention from the ongoing special counsel’s investigation into Russian meddling and possible collusion with the Trump campaign in the 2016 election. But at a broader level, the GOP’s campaign to undermine public trust in the FBI – and even in the Justice Department itself – is so far beyond the historical norm as to merit special notice."

- Peter Thiel Bid For Gawker.com. Now He May Want To Turn It Into A Conservative Investigative News Site. (BuzzFeed) "Thiel’s statements to the students is the first public evidence that he may have plans to do something with the Gawker website if he is successful with his bid.Many critics were worried that the billionaire had simply bid for the site and its remaining assets to eliminate its online archive."

- Trump Is the Worst Salesman America Has Ever Had (Foreign Policy) "Republicans used to bash President Barack Obama for alienating American allies, but Trump is turning off our partners like no one ever has. According to Gallup, “Portugal, Belgium, Norway and Canada led the declines worldwide, with approval ratings of U.S. leadership dropping 40 points or more in each country.” All four of those countries are NATO members — i.e., among the closest allies that America has. The situation has gotten so bad that Trump can’t even visit the United Kingdom, America’s closest friend for the past century. Trump is entirely focused on American hard power — military and economic might. What he doesn’t realize is that much of America’s success as a superpower has rested on our “soft power.” America is an empire by invitation: We have troops in more than 170 countries and military alliances with as many as 60 countries, because most other nations do not feel threatened by American power. Britain was said to have acquired its empire in “a fit of absence of mind.” America is losing its global power in the same way. Through ignorance and malice, Trump is destroying the foundations of American influence that previous leaders spent three-quarters of a century erecting."

SOCIALIZED MEDICINE:

- The GOP’s Coming Obamacare Capitulation (National Review) " Since late last year, GOP leaders have been planning to pump tens of billions of dollars’ worth of new federal spending into the veins of insurance companies that are hemorrhaging red ink on the Obamacare exchanges. Ironically, Republican leaders settled on this new corporate-giveaway program as a result of their only real health-care achievement — scrapping Obamacare’s tax on the uninsured. Confused? Congressional leaders and their besties in the insurance industry certainly hope so. They plan to nestle this gift to insurers inside a much larger bill that will fund the federal government through September 30. Leaders are working to get that massive new spending measure enacted early this month."

SPORTS:

- How the Eagles Followed the Numbers to the Super Bowl (NYT) " The Eagles’ shrewd application of analytics to everything from roster management to in-game strategy helped propel them to a 13-3 record and a berth in Super Bowl LII against the New England Patriots on Sunday. Teams are prohibited from using computers to process information during games, but with no ban on charts or graphs, the Eagles can plot strategy based on hypothetical situations run in the off-season or customized reports based on that week’s opponent."

TECHNOLOGY:

- Early Facebook and Google Employees Form Coalition to Fight What They Built (NYT) " The cohort is creating a union of concerned experts called the Center for Humane Technology. Along with the nonprofit media watchdog group Common Sense Media, it also plans an anti-tech addiction lobbying effort and an ad campaign at 55,000 public schools in the United States. The new Center for Humane Technology includes an unprecedented alliance of former employees of some of today’s biggest tech companies."

- 7 on-the-rise technology trends to track and learn (O'Reilly) "The search data from our online learning platform shows that practical tools and methods around AI and cloud deployment are growing in importance. Investing time in these areas should prove fruitful for developers and tech leaders."

- Facebook’s Virtual Assistant M Is Dead. So Are Chatbots (Wired) "It’s difficult to remember now, but there was a moment in early 2016 when many in the tech industry believed chatbots—automated text-based virtual assistants—would be the next big platform. Few expected that voice assistants like Amazon's Alexa and Google Assistant would thrive and text-based chatbots would become a punchline. Facebook’s goal with M was to develop artificial-intelligence technology that could automate almost all of M’s tasks. But despite Facebook’s vast engineering resources, M fell short: One source familiar with the program estimates M never surpassed 30 percent automation. Today's best algorithms are a long way from being able to really understand all the nuances of natural language."

TRUMPTEL:


- Trump is winning (Vox) "Trump has largely outsourced his agenda to the congressional GOP and their allies inside his administration. As a result, he has pursued policies similar to what Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz or Jeb Bush might have pursued: repeal of Obamacare, tax cuts for corporations, deregulation for the energy industry. Trump’s opponents can take comfort in their success at resisting and wounding this incarnation of Trump’s White House. But there is another Trump presidency — that of Donald J. Trump, reality television star and international brand. This is the presidency that I suspect matters more to Trump himself, the one that he pursues during his morning “executive time,” the one he furthers with every tweet, the one he obsessively monitors on cable news. This is the presidency for which the measures of achievement aren’t bills passed or jobs created but headlines grabbed and mindshare held. This is the presidency that, for all its collateral damage, is succeeding beyond Trump’s wildest dreams. This is the presidency that few have figured out how to resist.

- Republicans Have Made Their Peace with Trump's Dishonesty (National Review) "Republicans here find themselves playing the role of Clinton-era Democrats. Democrats knew what Bill Clinton was, and rather than recoil from his dishonesty, they relished his slickness and exulted in his talent for besting his political adversaries. The Republicans have made their peace, apparently, with Donald Trump’s habitual and reflexive dishonesty. There isn’t much to be proud of in any of that. But it isn’t a crime to sell one’s soul."

WINTER OLYMPICS:

- Pyeongchang’s Winding Path From Obscurity to Olympics Fame (NYT) "Located 50 miles from North Korea and the world’s most heavily fortified border, Pyeongchang was known mainly as a mountain backwater that produced potatoes and cattle. Pyeongchang’s obstacles [to selection for hosting the Olympics] were both economic and physical. It is one of the poorest places in Gangwon, South Korea’s most isolated and least developed province, which shares a long border wih the North. And though it is just 80 miles from Seoul, getting to Pyeongchang from the capital used to take hours on mountain roads..."

BOTTOM OF THE NEWS:

- ‘Wash your stinking hands!’: ER nurse rants about ‘cesspool of funky flu’ (WaPo) "She then demonstrated how to minimize the transmission of germs while sneezing, quipping, 'Watch this — I'm going to teach you all a magic trick. It's amazing.' She filmed herself fake sneezing into the inside of her elbow — a move that's commonly recommended by health professionals and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention"

- Virgin Atlantic Introduces ‘Love Suite’ for People Who Want to Cuddle Mid-Air (Fortune) "...the 'Love Suite,' which is designed for couples that want to eat or watch a film in close proximity. Any other activities you choose are up to you."

TODAY'S SONG:


- Money (Pink Floyd)


Email topofthenews1@gmail.com... I love the feedback, corrections, suggestions, and tips. Thank you...

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