The below excerpt is taken from a short paper I wrote in the Fall of 2006 for a masters course in national security studies. The above references make for interesting comparisons on the importance of this war.
“The victory that Hizballah achieved in Lebanon will have earthshaking regional consequences that will have an impact much beyond the borders of Lebanon itself.” (Yasser Abuhilalah, Jordanian Daily Al Ghad, 15 August 2006)
The recent success of the terror group Hizballah against the Israeli army, which supposedly is pound for pound the best army in the world, has caused many security experts to take pause. For thirty-four days Hizballah fought the Israeli army to a draw; something that would have been unfathomable in previous Middle East conflicts given the advanced nature of Israeli weapons and tactics. Some would argue that Hizballah is not a state sponsored terror group and falls more in line with the above articulated networked terror group. However, Hizballah’s recent war with Israel suggests that, while Hizballah does not draw its political ideology from a state sponsor, it most assuredly receives significant monetary and military weapons and training support from a state sponsor (Iran and Syria) and draws significant environmental support from its physical presence in a state (Lebanon). The achievement of Hizballah suggests that a new emerging organizational trend has surfaced which could serve as a template for future Middle Eastern terror groups.Formed in 1982 by Shiite militants and Iranian Revolutionary Guards to fight the Israeli invasion of the Syrian-controlled Bekaa Valley in eastern Lebanon, Hizballah has morphed into a complex organization. According to Fawaz Trabulsi, a Lebanese professor of militia studies, the current Hizballah organization is compartmentalized, “They have a military and intelligence organization totally separated from the political organization.” (Cody) This compartmentalization along with a number of other organizational standards within Hizballah contributed to the success the terror group experienced in their recent war with Israel.
Hizballah’s strongest weapon is the organization and discipline of its supporters. Hizballah is assessed to have as many as 3,000 highly trained “regular” army members and another 10,000 to 12,000 supporters throughout southern Lebanon who provide logistical and military support. According to Timor Goskel, a longtime adviser of UN forces in Lebanon, after each Israeli strike in the recent conflict, Hizballah workers swept in and cleared away rubble from streets and blown-up bridges (Jervis). These actions showed a complex level of coordination not seen in the civil war of the 1970’s and ‘80’s (Jervis).
Additionally, the 3,000 regular Hizballah army fighters displayed a level of dedication and training not experienced by any force the Israeli army had fought. According to Brigadier General Nehushtan, a member of the Israeli army’s general staff, the Hizballah leadership carefully studied military history, including the Vietnam War, and set up a training program with help from Iranian intelligence and military officers with years of experience in the Iran-Iraq war (Cody). The training was matched to weapons that proved effective against the Israeli army equipment (Cody). The Hizballah fighters were armed with sophisticated Russian anti-tank weapons and thousands of missiles and rockets all controlled by sophisticated computerized command posts (Jervis).
Finally, the Hizballah social welfare program within Lebanon almost assures the terror group of continued success following the massive destruction the Israeli forces inflicted during the war. The group has an extensive network of hospitals, clinics, and schools. The charity work by the group has created a zealous following and makes Hizballah a “formidable political force in the region.” (Jervis)
The recent Hizballah war with Israel has brought to the forefront a template for a new state sponsored terror group. In this example, Hizballah, backed by Iranian and Syrian financing and military training and weapons, along with environmental support of the Lebanese populace, executed a thirty-four day war in which the mighty Israeli armed forces were fought to a draw; possibly changing the balance of power in the Middle East.
2 comments:
AB, while I agree that the 2006 war will likely be viewed as transformational from a historical perspective, I come to this conclusion from a different vantage point.
Yes, Hizballah (is this the latest spelling for the group? I've lost count...) certainly has greatly enhanced its operational efficiencies and is growing in membership - both fervent true believers as well as general "supporters". But that isn't really why they held the Israelis to a draw.
What most people fail to acknowledge is the seismic shift in elite public opinion in Europe. The multiculti crowd across the pond now has little interest in portraying Israel as the first line of defense for the West - in fact, it has reached the point where any semblence of objectivity has been tossed aside and there is unconditional support for the Palestinian "cause".
In the halls of power in London, Paris and Berlin etc., Israel has become nothing less than an omnipresent strawman to bayonet when discussing everything from the utter backwardness of Arab culture to why political Islam is ascendent on the global stage.
There are several reasons for this, most notably the seismic demographic shift underway in the major Euro nations where domestic politics are being ever more influenced by the growing Muslim immigrant populations. Toss in the grotesque fascination with multiculturalism and a few dashes of self-loathing, intellectual cowardice and vacuous post-Christian moral relativism...and its not difficult to see just how far our "allies" have fallen.
This feckless disavowal of Israel by the Euro elite changed everything.
Combine this with:
(1)The 24 hour hyper news cycle.
(2)An Israeli government that maintained a deer-in-the-headlights look throughout the confrontation.
(3)The Muslim League at the UN (or whatever they call themselves now).
4)The brilliant manipulation of Western media, and therefore Western sentiment in general, by the Palestinian leadership and its various mouthpieces across the planet.
(5)The very conscious decision by Hizballah to fight from within civilian crowds and high emotional value locales like mosques.
Considering all of these factors, there was no way Israel could ever conceive of a military "victory" unless they were willing to get their hands very bloody.
It would've been interesting to see how Sharon would've directed the offensive in comparison with Olmert's decisions.
Something tells me Bibi Netanyahu won't let the military strategy be circumscribed by fealty to international opinion the next time Israel throws down with Hizballah - and you know there will be a next time in the not too distant future.
Mike,
Thanks for the comments. Why don't you do some more writing, and I'll post it on the main page...? Or better yet, launch your own blog... So, if I read you correctly:
1. The Europeans are spineless sissies
2. The Muslims are taking over the world - at least Europe
3. Netanyahu is going to go after Hizballah
AB
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